It probably wasn’t a surprise, was it? The Indian government appear to have decided to allow the second wave of coronavirus to run largely unchecked, hence the dreadful scenes from the country. And hence also a new, unwelcome variant has formed in the political vacuum.

Sure enough, that variant has spread to other countries and is causing problems in some corners of the UK. Surge testing and speeding up the vaccination programme is taking place – and indeed, I actually had my second Covid jab yesterday.

On Friday afternoon, the British Prime Minister gave a press conference where he claimed the variant “could” make it more difficult for the government to move to the final stage in June. Notice the emphasis on the word “could” – something that much of the press has dismally failed to do.

The answer to this is simpler than it sounds. If the variant does get out of control, then yes, the date probably will be pushed back. If the variant is contained and its spread limited, the date probably won’t be pushed back. That’s the simple and clickbait free answer to the question.

And if that’s not enough for you, here’s an analysis I did back in February on the subject. I stand by every word at the moment, but would love nothing more than to be proven wrong…